China’s Factional Politics
The recent 18th Party Conference has been widely seen as a victory for retired Chinese President Jiang Zemin. Ten years after leaving office his faction remains a force to be reckoned with in the Communist Party — outgoing President Hu Jintao succeeded in placing only one close ally, Prime Minister Li Keqiang, on the Politburo Standing Committee, the highest tier of Party leadership. By contrast, Jiang is seen as having had at least five allies ascend to the powerful body. But China's factional system is ripe for change. Jiang's age, 86, and Xi Jinping’s rise to the presidency, makes it unlikely that future negotiations will take place among the intra-party groups we now recognize. Rather, Xi will likely follow the example of his predecessors Hu and Jiang in building his own faction, with new individuals who owe their advancement entirely to him. Today, two groups, both associated with Jiang but distinct from one another, seem to be the in the ascendant: the “Shanghai Ga...